Will Google Plus overtake Facebook?

Facebook Timeline like Google Plus

• Google Plus is supposed to have 400million users by the end of year 2012.

Here’s some news Mark Zuckerberg won’t ‘like’ - Google’s social networking site Google Plus will have more than 400million users by the end of 2012, according to a researcher.

The prediction comes from U.S. analyst Paul Allen, who said that Google Plus, which went public in September, has just passed the 62million mark, with a quarter of those signing up in December.

He said 625,000 members are signing up every day and expects that number to rapidly increase – partly because over 700,000 Android devices are bought every day, which makes signing up to Google Plus easier, and partly through integration with other products and the power of word of mouth.

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400million users strong by the end of 2012, according to a researcher

Naturally, he posted the results of his findings on Google Plus.
He doesn’t know quite why December saw such huge numbers flock to the site, saying that ‘it may be the holidays, the TV commercials, the Android 4 signups, celebrity and brand appeal, or positive word of mouth, or a combination of all these factors’, but he’s in no doubt that the growth will continue at an astonishing rate.

He said: ‘Based on the accelerated growth I'm seeing and all the dials and levers Google can still utilise, and the developer ecosystem that will be developed, I predict that 2012 is going to be a breakout year for Google Plus and that it will end next year with more than 400million users.’

It’s still far short of Facebook’s 800million users, but these figures are sure to make CEO Mark Zuckerberg sit up and take notice.
It should be pointed out, however, that Mr Allen’s methodology is not based not actual figures and could best be described as a ‘guestimate’.
His approach was to track a big list of unusual names in the U.S. and note how many people with those names mentioned they were on Google Plus when they applied for work through recruitment site Elance.
He does have some backing, though, from the Global Web Index, who last week announced that Google Plus actually has 150million active users, more than double Mr Allen’s estimate.
Google Plus is built on the idea that some posts are public and some private - so users have different 'circles' for friends, colleagues as well as 'public' posts that anyone can see.
It also features a ‘what’s hot’ button, that gives users a feed of the posts being shared the most.
Google Plus has so far had a slightly rocky start with even the search engine’s own staff criticising the site.

HOW GOOGLE PLUS HAS GROWN ACCORDING TO PAUL ALLEN

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Month                                                 Number of users

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July 13                                       10million

August 1                                     20.5million

September 1                               24.7million

October 1                                   38million 

November 1                                43million

December 1                                50million

December 27                               62million

January 1                                    65.8million (forecast)

February 1                                   85.2million (forecast)

 

 

 

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Google engineer Steve Yegge accidentally posted a blog entry on his 'Public' circle saying that Plus was a 'knee-jerk' reaction and a 'pathetic afterthought'.
If Mr Allen is right, it could be the most successful 'afterthought' in internet history.
Google declined to comment on the researcher's predictions.

 

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